DISQUS

Mark · 1 year ago

So, hubdub is smarter than Karl Rove basically?

Ryan · 1 year ago

Anyone's smarter than Karl Rove :-)

I joke, he's a smart guy just sometimes a bit of an annoyance!

Pundit · 1 year ago

Congratulations to Hubdub on getting the number right.

It was, however, the result of a fluke in Hubdub getting predictions on two states wrong -- both with exactly 11 electoral votes.

As Hubdub says, "Hubdub's Election Map was based on 51 underlying prediction markets where users traded predictions in real-time on who would win each state."

Hubdub incorrectly predicted Indiana would go to McCain (63% - 37%) and that Missouri (incorrectly) would go to Obama (60% to 40%). The result was that Obama reached the "correct" number 364 of electoral votes by adding the incorrect predictions of Missouri to the electoral college "total".

Nonetheless, accurately predicting 49 of 51 markets is nothing to sneeze at -- even though it may not, really, be "spot on".

Measure · 1 year ago

Unfortunately, Hubdub is actually off by one. The Omaha, Nebraska vote has been called by many news organizations for Obama.

This more completely invalidates Hubdub's claim, even more so than the fact that Hubdub called two states incorrectly.

Furthermore, it raises the question as to whether the nebraska prediction page should have it's results invalidated, as the question allowed no answer for "split" in Nebraska.